洞察元宇宙对全球经济活动的潜在贡献
2023-02-20 00:00:00
许多人认为元宇宙会是互联网的传承者与互联网加强版。但如果换个角度去思考，元宇宙创造的数字空间是最有望帮助实现不同物理空间之间的互动与协作的沃土。打破平台兼容壁垒，以不可限量的方式与体量加速社会潜力发展。早期元宇宙的组成部分，如增强现实、虚拟现实、混合现实、区块链和不可伪造的代币，已经逐渐对全球经济活动产生了潜在贡献，并有望成为元宇宙未来的核心支柱产业。
洞察元宇宙对全球经济活动的潜在贡献
许多人认为元宇宙会是互联网的传承者与互联网加强版。但如果换个角度去思考，元宇宙创造的数字空间是最有望帮助实现不同物理空间之间的互动与协作的沃土。打破平台兼容壁垒，以不可限量的方式与体量加速社会潜力发展。早期元宇宙的组成部分，如增强现实、虚拟现实、混合现实、区块链和不可伪造的代币，已经逐渐对全球经济活动产生了潜在贡献，并有望成为元宇宙未来的核心支柱产业。
近日Meta 委托国际经济咨询公司Analysis Group编写了一份元宇宙白皮书，预测了元宇宙技术对全球经济的影响。元宇宙这类突破性技术与现阶段的数据对于建立相对完善且准确的估算模型是一项很大的挑战。但我们熟悉的互联网、移动电话、相机、多媒体等，组成了成熟的互联网功能的移动设备基础设施和生态系统。该系统正是此次估算模型的重要参考。根据该移动技术行业在全球范围内创造的直接及间接效益、就业率、以及社会效率的提升等数据对标该超现实世界的潜在市值。
图片来源丨《The Potential Global Economic Impact of the Metaverse》文章封面，如有侵权联系我们立即删除
该模型预测在2022-2031年的9年时间内，元宇宙对GDP的贡献或达3.01万亿美元，且当元宇宙被广泛应用在现阶段相对集中的游戏、社交媒体、电子商务和娱乐板块后之外，市场或可超过80万亿美元，其中亚太地区占比高达1/3¹。
数据引用来源丨《The Potential Global Economic Impact of the Metaverse》文章，如有侵权联系我们即刻删除
该报告让我对未来元宇宙的发展潜力、可操作性有了很大期待。引用文章观点，其实现今的数字世界仍是不兼容的。例如，用户需要有个人账户才能访问Facebook或TikTok等社交媒体应用，也需要有个人账户才能访问Xbox或PlayStation等游戏机²。但在元宇宙中，用户将被授权无缝地消费数字商品和服务¹。《时代周刊》的Andrew Chow支持这一愿景。他写道："不同于现今拥有的Facebook和Tik Tok账户，你发布的所有信息都归这些公司所有。在元宇宙里，你将能够拥有你的数字人格以及你的所有想法和数字财产，无论你“走”到哪里。
原文如下：“Instead of having separate Facebook and Twitter accounts in which everything you post is owned by those corporations, you will be able to own your digital personhood and all of your ideas and digital belongings wherever you go³.”
例如，一个人可以从一个平台购买一件数字服装或配件，当他们访问另一个平台时仍然 "穿 "着它，而不是将该数字产品限制在个人最初购买的平台上使用4。
当元宇宙不再是单一的公司或组织的产品或空间5，甚至不是所有的产品或空间，而是它们连接的方式时，生活将变得更加现实且真实。元宇宙的宅生活，也必然会发生改变，创物说团队正在积极思考未来的居住形式，更好的去承接学习、生活、工作空间。届时我们的“绿洲”也将更加生机勃勃。
参考文献：
1 Lau Christensen,Alex Robinson,”The Potential Global Economic Impact of the Metaverse”
2 Ball, Matthew, “The Metaverse: What It Is, Where to Find it, and Who Will Build It,” matthewball.vc, January 13, 2020, available at https://www.matthewball.vc/all/themetaverse. See also Radoff, Jon, “Web3, Interoperability and the Metaverse,” Medium, November 22, 2021, available at https://medium.com/building-the-metaverse/web3-interoperability-and-the-metaverse-5b252dc39da (“Right now, you probably use Facebook Login or Google Login to interact with a large number of online applications. … An important part of Web3 is inverting this model: instead of having a company own your identity and then granting you access to other applications — you will own your identity and choose which applications to interact with. This is accomplished by using a digital wallet such as Metamask (for Ethereum and ETH-compatible blockchains) or Phantom (used on the Solana blockchain). Your wallet becomes your identity, which can then allow you to use various decentralized applications on the internet that need to interact with your currencies and property. This includes decentralized finance applications — as well as metaverse experiences that will draw upon interoperable avatars, items for self-expression, game items, etc.”).
3 Chow, Andrew R., “Why TIME Is Launching a New Newsletter on the Metaverse,” Time, November 18, 2021, available at https://time.com/6118513/into-the-metaverse-time-newsletter/.
4 See, e.g., Meta, “The Metaverse and How We’ll Build It Together -- Connect 2021,” [YouTube video], available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uvufun6xer8, 6:32-7:17 (“Importantly, you should be able to bring your avatar and digital items across different apps and experiences in the metaverse.”); 37:48-37:55 (“And most importantly, there’ll be a real sense of continuity, where the things you buy are always available to you”).
5 Herrman, John, and Browning, Kellen, “Are We in the Metaverse Yet?” The New York Times, October 29, 2021, available at https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/10/style/metaverse-virtual-worlds.html/.
